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College Guidance Q & A

Larry receives numerous questions from applicants and their families about college admissions. Each week he will pick a question and share his response. This student's question is about acceptance probability.

Q: Let’s say that I have a 30% chance of getting into UC Berkeley (according to CollegeVine). Is this good, and do you think I can get in?

A: That 30% assessed by College Vine, indeed any quantification of the probability of acceptance, is meaningless. College acceptances do not occur on a roulette wheel. The fact that one can calculate the percentages admitted after the admissions cycle is complete does not tell us the probability of admission for any single applicant - so if your profile is higher than average maybe your admission is more Iikely than for the “typical” applicant, but so what? It’s likelihood is neither 30% nor 10% nor 95%.

If you are a CA resident, your likelihood of admission is better than if you are an out of state applicant. That much is true. Depending on what the CA regents do for the coming cycle, the difference might become even greater. The only way it works is you apply and then you find out.

If you have questions pertaining to college admissions or would like to learn more about our program, please contact Larry Blumenstyk at

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